I picked up a copy of Business 2.0 magazine (www.business2.com) last night, and
learned about something very interesting.

I may have been in the dark for the past few years, but there are
apparently quite a few people and agencies who believe that the united
states is headed into a huge labor shortage. LABOR shortage. Sorry
for being obnoxious, but with the way things are going these days two of
the people I’ve mentioned this to since last night said "Yea, of
course there’s a shortage", their brains auto-munging my words
into "job shortage".

The claims are based on demographics. In a nutshell, the number of
working-aged people is going to drop sharply over the next few years as the
baby boomers retire. The percentage of college educated people is
stabilizing at around 60%. And, the number of jobs is going to grow at a
slow and predictable rate. This apparently results in millions of US jobs
that can’t be filled by US workers.

Business 2.0 doesn’t have the article up yet, but until then, Google
turns up a lot of hits. Here are a few:

featuredreports.monster.com/laborshortage/forecast/

www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,9847,00.html?f=features

www.csmonitor.com/2003/0106/p16s02-wmwo.html

www.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2003/02/03/focus1.html

Not surprisingly, there are nay-sayers as well. I remember reading about
the "Y2K disaster" in 1996. People generally thought that the Y2K
doomsayers were insane. There’s a little of that going around now:

heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/itaa.real.html

www.geocities.com/tablizer/shortage.htm
(warning: this one is moronic)

This is all very confusing. Should I be reading "How to Keep Your
Job" (www.pragmaticprogrammer.com/talks/HowToKeepYourJob/HowToKeepYourJob.htm)
or "How to Pick Your Job"? I guess I’ll have to
hedge and prepare for both.